2012 Election Analyis

[Bruce Donnelly]

The attached one page analysis of 2012 presidential election results in Illinois may be of interest.

ILanalysisPres.pdf

It shows the final statewide totals (official canvass) for the Presidential race in Illinois, including the top 5 counties. This updates the preliminary analysis which was discussed at our post-election meeting in November.

 

Bottom line - Obama won all 5 top counties.  Turnout was very low for a presidential election - at around 70%

 

Although Democratic turnout for Obama was down sharply from 2008 levels, it has climbed steadily since 2000 in the top counties and statewide.

 

Meanwhile, Republican turnout has declined in the top counties and only improved slightly statewide.

 

The Republican party has gone nowhere at organizing and growing the base of voters during the last decade, especially here in the Chicago area which accounts for around 60% of the total votes in Illinois.

 

The Dems haven't just won by default.  They have earned it by getting organized while the IL GOP leaders have made excuses for repeated failures.  Despite the demonstrably lousy performance by their leaders in Springfield and in Washington DC, they continue to turn out and grow their base of supporters.

Maybe IL GOP leaders will eventually figure out that it takes more than Lincoln Day / Reagan Day fundraisers, costly ads, and GOTV phone banking to win.

 

The Republican party continues to operate more like a private social club or bureaucracy rather than a competitive organization fighting to win elections.  If this were a business, perhaps there would at least be some recognition that the loss of market share and failure to attract new customers between elections might be a significant problem worth doing something about.  Perhaps there would be some recognition of the need to make real changes, rather than accept that a declining market share is inevitable.

 

If there is a leadership plan to improve party performance and win voter support between elections, it is well hidden.

 

Indeed, there doesn't even seem to be much recognition yet of the need to change.  Instead, like a bureaucracy which is only effective at uniting to attack any whistleblowers who dare to question or try to change anything, as though the status quo was perfect and should never be altered except to reward them with more resources regardless of results, the Republican party is stagnating and becoming largely irrelevant in Illinois, except at the local level in some areas. 

 

The SCC (state central committee) and party leaders seem to remain in denial about even having a problem. 

 

Some even think Tea Party conservatives are the problem.  That's like blaming the messenger who calls attention to the problems.  They ignore any criticism and assume that we all have to "go along to get along" as inevitable losers.

 

Best wishes for a happy new year in spite of all that is happening in Springfield and Washington, DC these days.

 

The holidays are a useful time to reflect on past events, future plans, and a larger perspective on what really matters.

 

Imagine how George Washington felt before crossing the Delaware to attack Trenton at Christmas 1776.  It's not our first crisis as Americans, and won't be our last.

http://barringtonvotes.com/video/christmas-1776

The path to victory is not always easy or predictable.   In the end, however, principled leadership changes the world for the better.  Rather than be discouraged, we all need to focus on how we can make a difference.

[Richard Michael]

Great analysis Bruce.

There are at least a few people in Illinois who are working to change the GOP from within.

In less than a year, the deadline will have passed to get your name on the 2014 primary ballot for precinct committeeman. It's not too early to line up people to commit to this. In Illinois you can only get on the ballot by having valid signatures on petitions during a very short window of time in the Fall.

It takes local people who live in the precincts to do this. No one can make it happen but yourselves.

Think about it. If you can't control one of the two major parties, you're pretty much out of the picture.

See G. Edward Griffin's analysis of the situation in An Idea Whose Time Has Come.

Griffin's Project City Hall ( http://projectcityhall.blogspot.com/ ) is recruiting and conducting training to enable the local activists to mount a bloodless coup. PCH has been behind a massive shift in power in the Oregon GOP which is about to be realized at the state level. Currently we're working with three southern states that are reorganizing their county and state parties this coming spring. Illinois is the first of the party primaries in 2014. Let me know what we can do to help. (909-274-0813) A grassroots change in Lake County would be huge.

[Bruce Donnelly]

Thanks.  There are some townships here now where all precincts have PCs, but across Illinois, roughly half of all PC positions are vacant.  That amounts to thousands of vacancies for which volunteers are needed.  Typically it only takes a petition with 10 signatures (easily gathered in an hour or so) to get on the ballot as a PC candidate, and most run unopposed.  Unfortunately, filling the vacancies doesn't mean the local organizing work gets done, but at least it's a start.  Some of the precincts have multiple volunteers to divide the work of staying in touch with hundreds of voters, such as "block captains" or other informal local teams.

The hard part is to organize a vacant precinct in the first place, for which we're exploring the use of trained teams of workers to quickly mobilize a targeted area and then find local leaders in the process to keep the voters in that area organized.  The party has no structure for doing this, much less in a strategically targeted way, such as to focus work teams on swing districts where organizing work can make a big difference.  We have to figure out how to do the necessary fundraising and organizational work to make this happen outside of the party structure.  In effect, this work should produce effective new PCs and better voter turnout in swing districts in 2014 and 2016 if we get it right..